Technology Was Never the Lesson: What Foresight Taught Me About Leading Transformation

The most valuable thing foresight ever taught me wasn't how to predict the future—it was how to help organizations prepare for it.

Ironically, I didn't learn that by studying the future. I learned it by asking better questions in the present.

In 2021, during one of our Horizon Z workshops, we posed a question that sounded almost absurd at the time.

What if one day purchasing decisions weren't made by people?

Not because humans disappeared.

But because intelligent systems had become sophisticated enough to evaluate options, compare products and make recommendations—or even decisions—on behalf of customers.

At the time, our discussions weren't focused on generative AI. ChatGPT didn't exist yet.

We were exploring emerging technologies like digital twins, robotics, automation, machine learning and other technologies that could fundamentally reshape industries over the next decade.

The question wasn't whether one specific technology would make this happen.

The question was:

If technology changes how decisions are made, what does that mean for businesses?

Within minutes, the conversation shifted.

We quickly realized the technology wasn't the most interesting part of the conversation. Its implications were.

If intelligent systems were evaluating products...

Would emotional marketing still matter?

Would brand reputation influence the decision in the same way?

Or would purchasing become increasingly based on technical performance, interoperability, lifecycle cost and measurable outcomes?

Then the discussion became even more interesting.

Where would those systems get their information?

Would they trust manufacturers describing their own products?

Would independent third-party testing become the most trusted source?

Would peer recommendations matter more than advertising?

Would structured product data become a competitive advantage?

Would superior engineering matter even more than superior messaging?

By the end of the workshop, we weren't trying to predict whether this exact future would happen.

We were asking a much more important question.

If this future became reality, how would we need to think differently today?

That conversation fundamentally changed how I thought about foresight.

Not because we found the answer.

But because we discovered better questions.

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Horizon Z wasn't really about technology

Several years ago, I had the opportunity to establish and co-lead Horizon Z, an initiative created to help our organization explore emerging technologies and prepare for the future of business.

On paper, it looked like an innovation program.

We explored artificial intelligence, robotics, automation, digital twins, quantum computing, gamification, and future ways of working.

Initially, I thought our job was to understand these technologies.

It didn't take long before I realized something.

The technology was never the destination.

It was the catalyst.

Our goal wasn't to become experts in emerging technologies. It was to use those technologies to challenge assumptions, expand thinking, and prepare our organization for transformational change.

Each new technology became an opportunity to challenge long-held assumptions about customers, markets, products and business models.

Over time, I realized the hardest part wasn't understanding the technology.

It was helping people become comfortable questioning the way things had always been done.

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The questions that mattered were different

Every emerging technology generated the same initial questions.

What does it do?

Should we invest?

What's the business case?

How quickly should we adopt it?

Those are important questions.

But they rarely led to transformation.

The conversations that ultimately changed our thinking sounded different.

• What assumptions does this technology challenge?
• If this became mainstream, how would customer expectations change?
• What new sources of competitive advantage might emerge?
• If we were building our business today, would we design it the same way?
• What capabilities should we begin developing before the market demands them?

Those questions weren't about predicting the future.

They were about preparing for multiple possible futures. In foresight and scenario planning, we often explore possible, plausible, probable, and preferred futures—not to predict which one will happen, but to help organizations become more resilient regardless of which future unfolds.

That realization fundamentally changed how I viewed foresight.

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Foresight isn't about predicting the future

One of the biggest misconceptions about foresight is that its purpose is to predict the future correctly.

In my experience, it's something much more practical.

Foresight builds an organization's ability to navigate uncertainty.

It creates space to challenge assumptions before they become constraints.

It encourages leaders to ask better questions before rushing toward better answers.

Most importantly, it helps organizations prepare before change becomes unavoidable.

Because transformational technologies don't arrive with certainty.

They arrive with ambiguity.

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When Generative AI went Mainstream..

When ChatGPT was released in November 2022, something interesting happened.

A technology that had once felt distant suddenly became accessible to everyone.

Almost overnight, organizations began asking,

"What AI use cases should we build?"

The pattern felt remarkably familiar.

It was the same instinct we had seen with every transformational technology before it.

Jump to implementation.

Find quick wins.

Start building.

A few months later, our executive leadership asked the Horizon Z team to help the organization understand what generative AI could mean for the business as the technology matured.

We deliberately chose a different starting point.

Before building use cases, we built understanding.

We invited external experts to explain what large language models actually were—and just as importantly, what they weren't.

We created opportunities for people to experiment, learn, share ideas, and explore possibilities together.

The goal wasn't simply to teach people how to use a new tool. It was to help them think differently about how work itself could change.

The conversations evolved.

People stopped asking,

"Can AI do this?"

They started asking,

"What becomes possible if we redesign the way we work?"

That shift in thinking was far more valuable than any single AI use case.

Looking back, Horizon Z taught me that technology was never the lesson.

It was simply the catalyst that challenged us to think differently.

Because foresight isn't about predicting the future.

Because the future doesn't reward the organizations that predict it perfectly. It rewards the ones that are prepared to adapt when it arrives.

Dreams, Vision, Innovation and Smart Car Technology

The feeling of Joy you experience when what you had just dreamt about, is actually happening, is amazing!! Isn't it..Well, I just re experienced something like that today..While reading through my regular emails on University of Michigan's Alumni Association, which gives me info on the latest technology and happenings at UOM, I came across an article, which was highlighted.  It was about smart car technology and UOM's involvement in the research. 

For a long time now, I had these two ideas for automobiles.  Remembering these ideas, takes me back to my college career fair days, where companies like GM and Ford, would ask you about some innovative ideas you have thought about and these two were mine...My first idea, dates back to my 7th-8th grade school days.  Two of my dad's brother are in USA, so as a kid, my grandmother used to come to US often and tell us stories back home about the life and technology in US.  One of the stories, I remember as a kid, she told us was about Automatic car, which both my uncles and aunts had.  It was fascinating, that as a kid, just with the word automatic, I had assumed an automatic car is like a robot, which drives itself automatically with a touch of a button..Ofcourse, as we grew up, we talked less about the specifics and types of these cars in US, so deep down, it was always there, that, that is how an automatic car works..Now, you can definitely imagine my disappointment when I first landed here in 2004 and saw an automatic car..But, in about 2008-2009, while my sister priyanka had attended some networking session, she had met someone, who talked about the same technology, where car would automatically drive themselves..When she came home and told me about it, and told me about Google actually working on that technology, I was jumping with joy, thinking finally!! The vision, even though it was just a child's imagination, was actually coming true..Ofcourse, I was disappointed and wished, I was somehow involved or part of this technology...

During one of my regular commutes, there was huge traffic jam and though there were news on the radio and all, no one actually seemed to have any idea on what was going on..Also if you have been through accidents like that you know, sometimes, the lanes are slow, just because everyone is curious what might have happened there and just driving slow, resulting in more back ups.  At that stage, I wondered, what if there was technolgy, which let me communicate from one car to another to pass the message of what is going on, on the road, if there a cop, oh be careful, or if there is an accident, slow down, accident ahead etc..While thinking about this, one day, I came across some signs, which you can install on your car trunk to put the smiley face, and I was like, yes, we are definitely getting closer to that..And now, when I read this article, my joy knew no bounds....again, I do wish, I was involved in this...One thing, I think about is, even though I am not a car fanatic (yes master's in mechanical engineering, but not highly passionate about cars), I should definitely keep a track of my visions and dreams...Who knows, some day, I might be the first to encash the vision/opportunity..Regardless of that, I am so happy, that the technology is atleast moving forward..I do wish HVAC technology, the field where I work in, would advance at this pace..Incase you are interested about this research, you can read it at the following address:

U-M Transportation Research Institute leads way in 'smart car' technology

Happy Dreaming!!